The current forecast date is 17 October, showing data until 23 October.
The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
covid19.nhs.data)All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 05 September) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.
We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.